Predictions

Prediction and implementation challenges for probabilistic models of Canada's future emissions.

Pre-NIR

Pre-NIR-YYYY-MM prediction challenges are about predicting National Inventory Report numbers for the NIR published in year YYYY, at a point MM months prior to publication.

Pre-NIR-2025-m04

Pre-NIR-2025-m04 is about predicting the last year of NIR-2025 data (calendar year 2023), 4 months ahead of publication.

Name Short Description weighted KL-divergence (lower is better, zero is perfect)}
Static Normals (data-cutoff: 2024-12-31) Very simple baseline model - non-time-varying estimates 3.322

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