Model: Static Normals (data-cutoff: 2024-12-31)

Emissions per province and territory, and per greenhouse gas, modelled as non-time-varying Normal distributions. National totals are modelled as the sums of provincial and territorial totals. This is a baseline model, not intended to be accurate.

Model Estimates of Past and Future Emissions

Emissions are summarized by year, and in terms of total MtCO2e per non-aggregate NIR sector. The black lines reflect reported historical emissions (the dotted line is the reported mean, the two thin solid lines are upper and lower 95% credible interval for the mean). The coloured elements reflect modelled emissions (the dotted line is the modelled mean, the shaded region is the model-estimated 95% credible interval for national emissions per sector). Colours correspond to high-level emissions categories:

  • dark blue for energy used in stationary combustion (e.g. for public electricity, oil and gas extraction, etc.)
  • light green for energy used in vehicles (e.g. light-duty, heavy-duty, off-road, marine, etc.)
  • purple for fugitive sources(e.g. venting, flaring)
  • wheat for agriculture-related emissions (e.g. soil, manure)
  • pink for waste-related emissions (e.g. landfills)
  • other colours for various industrial activities (mineral products, chemicals, metals)
Mouse-over the slider below to see the active date range and adjust it to focus on specific periods. Click on each panel for a deeper-dive into modelled emissions in that sector. For information about the model itself, refer to posts developing this page at the bottom of this page.

Prediction Quality

Prediction Task: Pre-NIR-2025-m04

Pre-NIR-2025-m04 is about predicting the last year of NIR-2025 data (calendar year 2023), 4 months ahead of publication.

The predictions themselves are shown above. The table below lists KL divergences between the reference and predicted emissions at the level of national totals. For more detail, see post Static Normals: a baseline predictive model, appendix on NIR-Prediction.

Overall weighted KL-divergence over all sectors, regions, and greenhouse gases: 3.322.

KL Divergence of predictions from reference national emissions (lower is better)

Sector CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 NF3
Public Electricity and Heat Production 4.97 2.53 0.77
Petroleum Refining Industries 1.94 0.64 1.10
Oil and Gas Extraction 4.27 0.09 1.17
Mining 2.06 0.26 0.13
Iron and Steel 2.27 1.77 1.31
Non-Ferrous Metals 2.48 1.04 0.70
Chemical 1.86 0.73 0.37
Pulp and Paper 3.37 2.47 1.46
Cement 2.86 1.64 0.29
Other Manufacturing 2.92 0.61 0.30
Construction 2.09 0.00 0.66
Commercial and Institutional 2.28 0.59 0.13
Residential 5.00 2.72 1.15
Agriculture and Forestry 2.54 0.88 0.19
Domestic Aviation (Civil) 4.02 0.92 3.62
Military 4.15 0.00 2.81
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 6.11 1.45 4.93
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 4.62 0.26 4.02
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 3.61 1.82 1.04
Motorcycles 4.56 0.32 2.27
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 5.33 0.00 2.46
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 3.89 0.00 0.64
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 3.90 0.11 1.05
Propane and Natural Gas Vehicles 5.25 0.16 2.16
Railways 1.29 0.32 0.25
Domestic Navigation 3.85 0.67 0.03
Fishing 6.23 1.64 3.14
Military Water-Borne Navigation 4.43 0.00 0.05
Off-Road Agriculture and Forestry 4.83 2.56 2.00
Off-Road Commercial and Institutional 5.06 1.67 0.71
Off-Road Manufacturing, Mining and Construction 3.61 1.91 1.62
Off-Road Residential 4.13 2.11 1.32
Off-Road Other Transportation 3.80 2.08 0.51
Pipeline Transport 3.43 1.10 1.95
Coal Mining 0.49
Oil 2.20 1.60 0.64
Natural Gas 2.80 3.42
Venting 0.14 5.33
Flaring 2.82 2.37 0.45
CO2 Transport and Storage 1.09
Cement Production 1.35
Lime Production 3.42
Mineral Product Use 2.71
Ammonia Production 1.87
Nitric Acid Production 5.48
Adipic Acid Production 7.97
Petrochemical and Carbon Black Production 2.89 0.88 2.65
Iron and Steel Production 2.03 1.64
Aluminium Production 2.01 4.88 3.60
Magnesium Production and Casting 4.32 5.18
Production and Consumption of Halocarbons, SF6 and NF3d 4.98 2.26 1.56 0.00
Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use 0.68
Other Product Manufacture and Use 2.66 1.27 2.87
Enteric Fermentation 0.53
Manure Management 0.27 0.21
Direct Sources 1.50
Indirect Sources 0.16
Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 1.93 2.03
Liming, Urea Application and Other Carbon-Containing Fertilizers 1.37
Municipal Solid Waste Landfills 0.02
Industrial Wood Waste Landfills 0.66
Biological Treatment of Solid Waste 1.58 1.36
Incineration and Open Burning of Waste 2.64 2.26 0.72
Municipal Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 0.89
Industrial Wastewater Treatment and Discharge 0.27 2.17 0.21
Forest Land 1.65 1.63 1.01
Cropland 1.95 0.74 0.53
Grassland 1.50 0.00
Wetlands 4.21 4.36 6.30
Settlements 0.11 0.25 0.02
Harvested Wood Products 7.11

Posts developing this page