Models
Simulation-based and probabilistic models of Canada's future National Inventory Reports.
Simulation-based Models
Simulation-based models are single scenarios (sometimes with ablations for analysis) to illustrate data sets and hypothetical futures.
| Name | Short Description | Predicted Emissions 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| NIR2025 | Visualize the data from National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report NIR-2025. | 698.1 Mt |
| Scaling | Model maximal deployment of existing products | 687.8 Mt |
Probabilistic Models
Probabilistic models estimate the probabilities of multiple possible futures. They are visualized in terms of the mean, and upper and lower bounds on probable futures.
| Name | Short Description | Predicted Emissions 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Static Normals | Emissions per province and territory, and per greenhouse gas, are modelled as non-time-varying Normal distributions. National totals are modelled as the sums of provincial and territorial totals. This is a baseline model, not intended to be accurate. | 379.2 - 1106.7 Mt |
| AR2 | Model emissions per province and territory, and per greenhouse gas, as evolving according to a 2-step autoregressive process (AR-2). | 737.7 - 862.9 Mt |