Model: Static Normals

Emissions per province and territory, and per greenhouse gas, are modelled as non-time-varying Normal distributions. National totals are modelled as the sums of provincial and territorial totals. This is a baseline model, not intended to be accurate.

Model Estimates of Past and Future Emissions

Emissions are summarized by year, and in terms of total MtCO2e per non-aggregate NIR sector. Each dotted line is the model-estimated mean. Each coloured region is the model-estimated 95% credible interval for national emissions per sector. Colours correspond to high-level emissions categories:

  • dark blue for energy used in stationary combustion (e.g. for public electricity, oil and gas extraction, etc.)
  • light green for energy used in vehicles (e.g. light-duty, heavy-duty, off-road, marine, etc.)
  • purple for fugitive sources(e.g. venting, flaring)
  • wheat for agriculture-related emissions (e.g. soil, manure)
  • pink for waste-related emissions (e.g. landfills)
  • other colours for various industrial activities (mineral products, chemicals, metals)
Mouse-over the slider below to see the active date range and adjust it to focus on specific periods. Click on each panel for a deeper-dive into modelled emissions in that sector. For information about the model itself, refer to posts developing this page at the bottom of this page.

Posts developing this page