An independent research project to model how Canada might achieve
zero net emissions.
This post announces a new page: a glossary of terms and acronyms with specific meanings in the context of PlanZero posts. This glossary also introduces modelling terminology to support future posts. The modelling terminology is used to reframe the NIR-reconstruction project within languages of both strategic management and of statistical modelling.
This post revisits the Bovaer strategy (Modelling a Bovaer Strategy) and adapts it to the Static Normals probabilistic model. This post deprecates the non-probabilistic "Scaling" model and in fact all of the non-probabilistic models in the Models tab in favour of probabilistic modelling generally.
This post introduces a "Static Normals" probabilistic model to PlanZero which is the first to impose modelling assumptions on the NIR, and the first to make predictions about future NIR emissions. The predictions are trivial: all years are the same (static, rather than dynamic). This model is intended as a baseline against which more complex future models can be judged. Several appendices to this post introduce probabilistic modelling notation, Bayesian inference, the Pre-NIR-2025-m06 emissions prediction challenge, and describe changes to PlanZero's build system to support probabilistic models.
This post introduces a PlanZero's first probabilistic model: an interpretation of the NIR-2025 data including its uncertainty estimates. The PlanZero site now includes a Models tab with a section for probabilistic models, which represent and visualize emissions uncertainty. This treatment of uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of PlanZero's future modelling work. This post also introduces "Planned" status for posts as a mechanism for communicating roadmap and organizing ongoing work.
Going meta: Refining the vision and mission, acknowledging the project contributors, and explaining how posts are meant to work as a mechanism for developing PlanZero.
This post breaks from the sector-by-sector analysis of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory to do a bit of modelling: what would happen if Canada's beef and dairy farmers gradually transitioned to administering the feed additive Bovaer, which reduces methane emissions? A PlanZero model finds that it could eventually remove 10Mt of annual emissions, and cost about $222 per tonne removed.
Eighth in the sector-by-sector National Greenhouse Gas Inventory series: heavy-duty diesel vehicles, such as medium and large freight vehicles, buses, and municipal refuse trucks.
Seventh in the sector-by-sector National Greenhouse Gas Inventory series: enteric fermentation, the emission of methane from the digestive systems of all livestock, but especially ruminants, and most especially cattle.
Sixth in the sector-by-sector National Greenhouse Gas Inventory series: energy to power light-duty gasoline cars and trucks (including SUVs, minivans, and cargo vans). A transition to EVs seems to be the sector's clearest pathway to decarbonization.
Fifth in the sector-by-sector National Greenhouse Gas Inventory series: residential stationary combustion. Energy from stationary combustion within residential buildings is used predominantly to heat living spaces and provide hot water. Heat-pumps and ongoing insulation improvements promise a viable pathway to decarbonization in this sector.
Fourth in the sector-by-sector series on the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory computation: stationary combustion sources involved in the extraction of oil and gas. Energy from stationary combustion is used directly and indirectly to drive pumps, compressors, separators, and diverse aspects of conventional wells, gathering systems, gas plants, and bitumen upgrading operations.
Third in the sector-by-sector series on the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory computation: the venting of emissions from oil and gas systems. Venting refers to the intentional or engineered release of greenhouse gases across within the oil and gas sector. The re-engineering of the sector to avoid such releases is well underway, but venting still accounts for 5.5% of Canada's annual emissions total, at least as of 2023.
Second in the sector-by-sector National Greenhouse Gas Inventory computation: Harvested Wood Products and Forest Land. Data from Natural Resources Canada on harvested wood volume supports a satisfactory estimate of Harvested Wood Products emissions, and a first step toward a Forest Land estimate.
The first in a series of posts replicating the sector-by-sector computation of Canada's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Public Electricity and Heat. As it is first, it also introduces the sectors of the IPCC reporting guidelines, and the 71 sectors with which Canada reports its greenhouse gas inventory.
A brief introduction to the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, the federal implementation of Canada’s obligations under the Paris Agreement.
What are greenhouse gases and what do they have to do with climate? This is, I hope, the first post in a series developing various plans to achieve a net-zero economy in Canada. It outlines the terms in which net-zero is defined, and documents planzero's simple climate model.
Coming back from the winter break, I thought I'd write about how I myself should contribute to this site; partly to get back in gear, and partly to encourage collaboration.
Plan Zero is an independent research project to work publicly toward understanding how Canada might achieve net-zero emissions.